UAE Non-Oil Sector Hits 79% of Economy; Finance Drives AED485bn Growth

AED485 Billion and Rising: UAE Non-Oil Economy Cements Its Dominance

Financial and insurance activities led the UAE’s non-oil expansion in the first quarter of 2026, growing 17.3% year-on-year and contributing 2.44 percentage points to non-oil growth, the single largest sectoral contribution in the period. That performance anchored a broader structural shift: non-oil activity now accounts for 79.4% of gross domestic product, up from 78% a year earlier, as real GDP reached AED485 billion at constant prices against AED470.9 billion in the same quarter of 2025.

Additional reference context is available at https://gulfnews.com/business/economy/uae-gdp-grows-3-to-dh485-billion-in-first-quarter-of-2026-1.500630054.

The headline growth rate of 3% understates the momentum in the non-oil economy, which expanded 4.8% year-on-year. The gap between overall GDP growth and non-oil growth reflects relative weakness in oil-related output during the quarter. According to the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, regional headwinds were confined to a limited number of activities, leaving the broader growth trajectory intact.

Construction expanded 8.1% and contributed 1.04 percentage points to non-oil growth. Human health and social work activities grew 7.7%, information and communication sectors expanded 5.9%, and professional, scientific and technical activities alongside administrative and support services grew 4.9%. Real estate activity increased 4.8%, public administration and social security grew 4.5%, and wholesale and retail trade expanded 2.6%.

The distribution of contributions tells its own story. Wholesale and retail trade added 0.42 percentage points to non-oil expansion, real estate contributed 0.36 percentage points, and professional and administrative services contributed 0.29 percentage points. No single sector outside finance is carrying the load. Growth is spread across finance, construction, trade and services, a profile that reduces concentration risk for investors and operators assessing the market’s durability.

Meanwhile, export performance reinforced the investment case for diversification. Non-oil exports grew 23.9% in the first half of 2026 to reach AED452.8 billion, the highest growth rate among all components of UAE foreign trade. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of Foreign Trade, attributed the expansion to the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements programme, which has opened new markets for UAE goods and services.

Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism, said the first-quarter results reflected the robustness of the national economy’s ability to sustain growth and enhance competitiveness at regional and global levels, crediting government policies and legislation designed to advance diversification. Mohammad bin Abdullah Al Gergawi, Minister of Cabinet Affairs, described the non-oil expansion as the product of integrated government policies and said the government would continue working with private and public-sector partners to ensure economic performance translated into opportunities for citizens, residents and investors.

The government’s We the UAE 2031 Vision targets a doubling of the national economy to AED3 trillion by 2031. At the current 3% growth rate, reaching that figure would require sustained acceleration or a significant expansion of the economic base, a gap that frames the policy pressure behind the diversification push.

One variable that could reshape the numbers entirely is a comprehensive revision of the UAE’s GDP accounts now underway. The overhaul adds new data sources, brings free zones within statistical coverage for the first time, and aligns methodologies with international standards. The first-quarter results are based on the current methodology, with the historical series to be updated once the revision is complete. For investors and analysts benchmarking performance against prior periods, that recalibration could reveal previously unmeasured economic activity within the non-oil sectors and shift the baseline against which future growth is measured.