Iran-US Conflict Roils Hormuz Shipping; Sanctions Tighten Six Months In

Six months into the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is at the center of a contested new operational framework, fresh sanctions pressure, and cascading disruptions to regional shipping and aviation.

The war began February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated missile and drone strikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury. What followed was a prolonged confrontation that has reshaped energy supply chains, rerouted commercial shipping, and forced airlines to continuously reprice their exposure to Middle East routes.

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The most consequential recent development on the maritime side came late Tuesday, when Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi disclosed to Iranian state television that Iran and Oman had negotiated a new operational framework for vessel transit through the strait. The proposed arrangement would ban military vessels from using the waterway entirely. For operators and insurers pricing risk through one of the world’s most economically critical chokepoints, the framework represents an attempt to establish clearer rules of passage, though its enforceability remains an open question.

Meanwhile, the United States has tightened its sanctions campaign against Tehran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian pushed back on Wednesday, telling the ISNA news agency that the pressure would yield nothing. “Given the measures the government has undertaken, America will not achieve anything with economic pressure at this stage, just as it was unable to achieve anything in the war,” he said. His defiance signals that Tehran, despite acknowledged domestic economic strain, is not recalibrating its posture in response to the sanctions.

US President Donald Trump addressed a separate dimension of the conflict during a Wednesday interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck, speaking to speculation about Iran’s supreme leader. “I don’t think he’s dead. He was very seriously wounded. The left side of his body, the arm, the leg, the whole thing. He was very seriously wounded. But I don’t think he’s dead,” Trump said. The supreme leader has not appeared publicly since assuming power following his father’s death in February, and the uncertainty around his condition carries real implications for who, ultimately, controls Iranian decision-making on the conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has aligned with Trump’s economic pressure strategy. Following a recent meeting with Trump, Netanyahu acknowledged discussions about potential negotiations with Iranian leadership but questioned whether any meaningful agreement was achievable under current Iranian governance. His position frames continued sanctions as the preferred instrument over diplomacy, at least for now.

The conflict’s operational costs are landing most visibly on regional aviation. Emirates, Air Arabia and flydubai have cancelled services on selected routes. Etihad Airways has maintained most of its operations to Bahrain and Kuwait, though airline schedules across the region remain under continuous review. Passengers have been advised to verify flight status before traveling.

Dubai International Airport faces a compounding challenge. Authorities are preparing for a surge in passenger volume as residents and visitors return from summer holidays, even as the security environment keeps airline scheduling in flux. Airport management is expanding operational readiness across check-in platforms and security checkpoints, and travelers have been instructed to allow extra time for road congestion, screening and immigration, particularly during peak departure windows.

Whether the Iran-Oman transit framework can hold, and whether it meaningfully reduces insurance and operational risk for commercial operators in the strait, will be the question shaping market conditions in the weeks ahead.