Iran's Oil Export Ultimatum Rattles Gulf Markets; Ghalibaf Threatens Regional Supply Disru

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a sweeping ultimatum to Persian Gulf oil exporters on Saturday, declaring that either all Gulf states will export their oil freely or none will, according to Mehr News Agency. The statement is the most direct Iranian threat to Gulf oil exports since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, explicitly targeting the combined export capacity of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman, the six Gulf Cooperation Council states whose oil flows through or near the Strait of Hormuz.

Ghalibaf framed Iran’s position in blunt economic terms: “Either all or none. If Iran cannot safely export its oil, Tehran says no other Gulf state will be allowed to do so either.” The declaration inverts the economic logic of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Operation Economic Outcast, which has targeted Iran’s remaining financial lifelines for five days and warned that countries providing Tehran with economic support will face severe consequences. The UAE has already halted all trade and financial transactions with Iran, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait have condemned Iranian attacks on Kurdish Regional Government infrastructure. By threatening to impose costs on the very Gulf states Washington is pressuring to isolate Tehran, Ghalibaf’s ultimatum directly counters the financial siege strategy.

Additional reference context is available at https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/935859/ghalibaf-warns-gulf-states-either-all-export-oil-freely-or-none-will.

The Iranian negotiator went further, challenging the foundation of American security architecture in the Gulf. He argued that US military presence offers no genuine security and that regional countries must establish an independent security order instead. “If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe,” Ghalibaf warned. That statement carries direct implications for the oil terminals, refineries, desalination plants, and port facilities that form the economic backbone of Gulf economies. He also declared that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status without the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

The timing carries particular weight. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed on Wednesday that Iran and Oman have agreed on their respective shares of Hormuz revenues, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi expressed hope that a temporary corridor announcement was imminent. Yet Ghalibaf’s Saturday declaration that Hormuz will never return to pre-war conditions without US withdrawal suggests that whatever technical arrangements are being finalized with Oman, Tehran’s strategic position remains maximalist and non-negotiable.

Meanwhile, the statement echoes the broader Iranian strategic vision articulated throughout the conflict, which the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan was partly designed to counter. Ghalibaf’s call for Gulf states to build an independent regional security order free from US military presence reflects Tehran’s long-standing rejection of American military dominance in the Persian Gulf.

The practical consequences remain uncertain. If Iran cannot export its oil because of the naval blockade, the message is that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar will face the same fate through Iranian action against their shipping and infrastructure. Whether Ghalibaf’s threat accelerates or derails the diplomatic momentum around the Iran-Oman corridor framework will determine whether the “all or none” ultimatum proves to be a negotiating pressure tactic or the opening move in a new phase of Iranian economic warfare against the Gulf states.

The declaration is a direct challenge to both the American security model and the economic isolation strategy currently being pursued against Tehran. The more pressing question for investors and operators with exposure to Gulf energy infrastructure is whether the corridor talks with Oman can survive the weight of that challenge.