Emaar Founder Forecasts 5-10% Price Dip as Dubai Real Estate Seeks Equilibrium

DUBAI — Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar Properties, is betting on 2027 as the year Dubai’s real estate market finds its footing, even as the seven-month Iran conflict continues to weigh on investor sentiment and compress pricing across the region.

Speaking at AIM Congress in Dubai on Monday, Alabbar projected a price correction in the range of 5 to 10 percent, framing it as a temporary recalibration rather than structural collapse. “If the situation settles, God knows what could happen in this market. It could become pretty fast,” he said, signaling that a resolution of regional tensions could unlock rapid appreciation.

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The broader Dubai property market has fractured along competitive lines. Some developers are offering discounts of 20 to 50 percent to maintain sales velocity amid the conflict, which began on February 28 and has disrupted hospitality, aviation, tourism and real estate investment flows across the Middle East. Emaar, the emirate’s largest listed developer, has taken the opposite approach.

“Our policy: we sell good product. We don’t give discounts,” Alabbar said. “We have good cash flow. We have a lot of cash.”

That financial position has allowed Emaar to resist the pricing pressure forcing competitors to erode margins. The contrast is stark. Where other developers face forced discounting, Emaar’s balance sheet gives it room to hold price and wait out the adjustment.

The developer’s confidence extends to capital deployment. In June, Emaar announced a Dh200 billion ($55 billion) megaproject spanning 4.5 million square metres, designed to accommodate nearly 150,000 residents. The master plan covers residential towers, villas and mansions, Grade-A office space, retail, luxury hospitality and supporting infrastructure. Launching a project of that scale during a period of regional instability was deliberate, Alabbar said. He views the Iran conflict as a temporary disruption, not a structural crisis, and pointed to historical precedent: since the 1920s, the world has experienced roughly 50 major geopolitical crises, and businesses with durable capital structures typically emerge from them stronger.

“We need to be preparing for the day after,” he said.

Emaar currently operates 90,000 units under production across 18 global markets and has maintained development velocity throughout the current period of instability. Alabbar drew a parallel to the Ukraine conflict, reinforcing his view that patient capital and long investment horizons are the correct response to geopolitical disruption, not retrenchment.

By contrast, developers with weaker cash positions or higher leverage have little choice but to discount. That bifurcation is reshaping the competitive landscape in Dubai. Operators who can absorb the adjustment period without sacrificing margin will be positioned to capture disproportionate share when supply normalizes and regional tensions ease.

Alabbar’s optimism also rests on Dubai’s policy environment. He characterized the emirate’s regulatory and investment framework as “probably one of the most exciting countries in the world” relative to global peers, arguing that structural advantages in governance, infrastructure and capital access will continue attracting investment once the regional picture clears.

The open question is timing. Alabbar’s 2027 equilibrium call assumes the Iran conflict resolves within the two-to-three-year window he considers typical for major geopolitical disruptions. If that timeline slips, the pressure on leveraged developers will intensify, and the gap between Emaar and its weaker competitors will widen further.